We unveiled one of our favorite 4PM pastimes back in April: called The Correlation Game, the steps are simple:Step One: Point your browser at Yahoo Finance, Marketwatch, or whatever mainstream financial media portal suits your fancy.Step Two: Scan the...
Topics: causation, cognitive bias, correlation, hume, Market commentary, news

Last weekend, we noted that the next phase of this bear market will likely be driven not by U.S. financial companies or by energy prices per se, but rather by the effects of the American slowdown being felt by the rest of the world.  A front page story..
Topics: bep, Economy, global economy, iron condors, iwm, Market commentary, Monthly Review, oil, options, ryanair, saliba, spy, wsj

So, uh, we have some LEAP options that are older than those Chinese gymnasts.  The word on the street is that they would’ve done even better this week, but some of them are still teething.The NYSE $TRIN is around 1.30, a level we haven’t...
Topics: china, foetus gymnastics, Market commentary, nyse, trin

Here are some data that have us thinking this afternoon: maybe the Nasdaq doesn’t resume its parabolic move from here.There are certainly plenty of short term reasons for Nasdaq bulls to frown and doze off for awhile: the QQQQs are up over 7% in 7..
Topics: adx, Bonus Trades, Calendar Spread, Greeks, mclellan oscillator, nasdaq, qqqq, rsi, synthetically equivalent, Volatility

In spite of all the fashionable buying today, our outlook over the next week or so isn’t particularly bullish, and here are some reasons why:Historically, it is really uncommon for the market to move up 2% the morning before a Fed...
Topics: dia, Fed, iyt, Market commentary, RTH, XLF, xlv, xly